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The National Treasury is set to revise its procedures for granting a sovereign guarantee to the Correios loan after the TCU questioned the depth of the risk analysis in the first rescue operation. The court opened a process to assess possible responsibility of government managers during the Lula era, saying the risk review did not reach the required depth for such a large deal. Correios secured a large loan from several banks with the government backing payments if needed, and officials loosened rules to let the company access funding based on its restructuring plan. The TCU demands a more thorough check of the plan’s assumptions, while the Treasury considers changes to internal processes and even to its governing rules, as negotiations for a new loan proceed and private banks may join the process. The issue shows how governance of state loans can face tougher scrutiny without derailing the restructuring effort.
- TCU questions risk analysis before granting the sovereign guarantee for the Correios loan
- Treasury to revise procedures to ensure guarantees are based on a solid plan and cash flow
- The case raises concerns about accountability for government managers and stronger checks
- New loan talks involve private banks, with less participation from Caixa and Banco do Brasil
- A new guidance rule aims to guide evaluation, but auditors fear it may be weak in practice
Treasury to Review Procedures for Sovereign Guarantee on Correios Loan After TCU Scrutiny
The National Treasury is set to rework the rules for granting a sovereign guarantee to a new loan for the postal service, following a TCU inquiry into its handling of the first rescue operation at the end of 2025. The court contends that the risk assessment for a deal of this scale did not meet required depth.
Lead: What happened and why it matters
In late December 2025, Correios borrowed R$12 billion from five banks, including two state-controlled lenders, Caixa Econômica Federal and Banco do Brasil. The sovereign guarantee means the Union would assume payments if the company defaults. Correios was in a grave cash crunch and could not meet the guarantee on its own, prompting the government to relax rules so the loan could proceed based on the expected results of a restructuring plan.
The TCU says the government did not perform a thorough risk check appropriate for such a large operation. The agency notes that the guarantee was granted only two days after the formal contract reached the Treasury, and the final restructuring plan was sent to the Treasury just three days before the decision. The review, according to the court, largely focused on cash-flow verification and did not sufficiently test the underlying assumptions. This has led the court to characterize the move as carrying a significant fiscal risk.
Context: The loan, the plan, and the risk landscape
As the Post Office faced serious financial trouble, the government allowed access to the loan even though the payment capacity was not guaranteed under existing rules. The decision hinged on the anticipated success of Correios’ restructuring plan. The TCU argues that a deeper analysis of the plan’s assumptions and the long-term viability of the operation was necessary before granting state backing.
The investigation also highlighted how quickly the deal moved from proposal to approval, raising questions about whether due process was followed. Officials in the Treasury stress that the process under review is meant to strengthen safeguards rather than stall future operations.
Regulatory background: Rules, decrees, and oversight
A December 2025 government instrument outlined a narrow framework for evaluating such loans. It limited the review to five key criteria and allowed the Treasury to request additional documents if needed. The TCU contends this framework was not fully utilized to verify the plan’s credibility. The legal architecture behind the loan also included a decree that enabled the use of plan projections in the approval decision, a move that was supported by an interministerial body and later signed into force by the President and key ministers.
Officials say the process aimed to provide higher-level justification for decisions, but the ongoing inquiry has raised concerns about whether past steps met the expected standards. The Treasury is weighing whether to formalize any changes in regulations or only adjust internal practices.
Current negotiations and financial outlook
In the weeks around the inquiry, Correios received several financing offers and is eyeing more than R$7 billion in new borrowing. It is possible that private banks will lead the next round, with public banks showing more cautious appetite to participate. Bank selection will hinge on how lenders assess the company’s restructuring and ability to meet future payments.
Officials note that while the current liquidity position is more stable than last year, the success of the new financing will depend on progress in the restructuring plan and a clear demonstration of repayment capacity. The restructuring process continues alongside the negotiations, with some capacity constraints tied to the ongoing oversight review.
Conclusion
The ongoing reforms by the National Treasury, prompted by the TCU critique, aim to ensure any sovereign guarantee for Correios is supported by a solid risk analysis and credible cash-flow projections. By tightening internal processes and possibly updating the governing rules, the Treasury seeks stronger safeguards while the restructuring plan proceeds. The case highlights greater accountability expectations for government managers and a need for rigorous checks in state-backed lending. As talks with private lenders advance and participation from Caixa and Banco do Brasil shifts, the outcome will depend on how the new framework translates into practice without stalling the restructuring. In short, the article points to a more robust governance framework for future interventions, balancing prudent risk management with the urgency of reform.
Frequently asked questions
- What triggers the Treasury to review risk analysis before a new loan to Correios after TCU criticisms? The TCU said the last risk check was shallow. This prompts a thorough risk review before the new loan.
- What did the TCU criticize about the first operation? It flagged only a formal cash-flow check. It did not test the plan deeply or question its assumptions. That raised fiscal risk for the Union.
- What changes might the Treasury make to its procedures? They may revise internal rules and the governing portaria. The review could take about two months. Changes aim to strengthen the risk check.
- Will the new loan use a sovereign guarantee again? It’s not yet certain. Talks are with private banks; Caixa and BB may have less appetite. The decision on a sovereign guarantee depends on the risk review.
- When will we know the outcome of the review? The review is expected to take up to two months. The new loan talks move forward in parallel.